Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
This week illustrated the disconnect between big business CEOs and everyone else. Whether it’s Moynihan’s recession denial or Dimon trotting out a classic Warren Buffet trope it’s clear than small and medium size business are seeing a completely different reality.
In the opposing corner we have big box retail on the decline and hard times hitting bottom lines indicating we’re already in recession. Meanwhile everyone is dealing with the painful unwinding of artificially low interest rates. The fed finally paused, but what does it mean?
A major force in small business is the push toward profitability. Most everyone knows money is about to get tight and small companies need to get lean. Meanwhile everyone is paying the price of the unprecedented decline in demand during COVID. Organizations like OPEC are still whip-saw trying to deal with fluctuating demand plus the lingering impact of Russian oil embargo.
Despite the gloom, at a high level the consumer debt to net worth ratio paints a different picture. Americans are still far better off as net worth climbs faster than debt and that’s good for everyone. On the flip side of high lending rates, the lack of new home construction will continue to prop up residential real estate prices. Supply and demand still alive and well.
Paints a very different picture, net worth is climbing
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Labor market continues to be tight, in places. Recent wage reports paint a picture of an oversupply of people with college degrees and undersupply of people without.
Inflation remains sticky with everything from drought driving water transport prices to gas prices at $4. It’s also obvious, to everyone except the conference board, that we are IN a recession.
The federal deficit balloons and the solar industry feels the slump of not being proped up by government spending.
Tech IPOs returned with Arm, Instacart and Klaviyo; while the cable industry reaches new lows as CNN has worst ratings weekend on record.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
More bad news for residential real estate; profitability in focus; national debt balloons; weird energy ideas in UK and sticky gas prices; platform consolidation; econ cycle nears end, what’s next;
The residential real estate market continues to suffer from perceived higher interest rates. Historically not above average, but relatively higher given the long low/no interest rates of recent memory. Housing supply continues to prop up prices which means home sales will certainly slow.
As fundraising and investment has become harder to find companies are now focused on improving profitability. AI companies are not alone, and the once hot tech sector is in the same boat raising prices and cutting costs. This will put pressure on SaaS contracts and employment and belt tightening continues.
The US debt continues to climb and will become prohibitive at some point due to higher interest rates. Meanwhile the UK mulls the idea of natural gas-powered heat pumps which is a weird idea given the Russian embargo and supply shortages. Oil supply tightening will continue to keep fuel prices high
Finally, streaming platforms continue to consolidate as Comcast looks for an exit on Hulu. It is worth noting that Comcast and Disney are still fighting over broadcasting contracts. And is the cycle nearly done? Whether you believe the economy was in recession the historical indicators say we’re nearing the end.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
This week marked yet another rate hike by the Fed and predictable market hang wringing. More troubling is the designation that we might not be headed for a recession after all. Meanwhile the alarm bells are still sounding, but are they early or late?
The entire cargo and ground transportation sector is in contraction with freight rates down significantly. Strikes by the Teamsters didn’t help Yellow trucking which has all but confirmed they will shut down. Likewise, consumer demand for EVS has stalled with dealers reporting a record number still on the lot.
Meanwhile more companies walking away from half-vacant real estate and many market watchers calling a bubble in AI. The most impressive counter view is the value discount for energy stocks particularly oil.
Energy is still vastly underinvested due to ESG hang-over
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
An interesting trend in household mobility due to an interest rate driven and still stalled real estate market. Contraditions abound between an inverted yield curve and a surging S&P 500. But the greatest contradiction is in the acceleration of fossil fuels as emerging economies ramp up energy needs.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Concerns abound and uncertainty is high, but one thing is certain we will not return to 2018 levels of any time soon. Banks are getting the double-whammy because of commercial real estate and continued deposit outflows. Spin it how you’d like, but this will bring more banking sector pain.
On the recession front, consumer credit continues to deteriorate, trucking is struggling and and consumer “revenge spending” is expected to peter out by fall. On the other hand the economy is way better than doomsters like to admit and the markets are placing bets on a quick recovery.
Either way fear, uncertainty and doubt abound. Sounds like a great time to shop for names that don’t show up on CNBC or Twitter. 😉
Households are still sitting on $1.2 trillion in excess savings.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Another weird week with sources debating a current recession vs other sources predicting the next recession. Not much to say aside from the next few years will be tumultous for the stock market.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
The labor market looks weird with tech already well through massive layoffs, and job losses spilling over into other sectors with massive layoffs in already weak retail names.
While the energy industry works on renewables and synthetic fuels, bridge energy sources like natural gas are showing promise. While US based natural gas is beholden to regulation, developing regions in Mexico and South America are starting to pop up on the radar.
Rounding out the field we have somewhat of a pullback in real estate, but not the cataclysmic 2008 scenario some had predicted. Low inventory and higher mortgage rates will work against younger millennials.
Millennial homeownership rates badly trail other generations
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Continued questions and fall out from the bank liquidity bailouts. The market is rattled and there is enough FUD in the system that between credit and consumer pull back there is no way we can avoid a contraction.
That said, I think we are well on our way through this cycle and as historically the designation of a recession comes AFTER the event. Bottom line we are further through this contraction than we think.
Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Fallout from SVB, Credit Suisse and First Republic and the liquidity crisis. This is far from over, and may result in bailouts.
As I wrote about in Dot-Com Bubble 2.0 we are now entering phase 2 of the downturn when the broader market will reel from tech excesses. I did not anticipate that small regional banks, which lend to small business, could be the catalyst.
My other eye is on energy prices with two things in play. First oil prices are declining which is indicative of a recession but conceals the underlying supply shortage. The second are expiring subsidies on green energy which could have an impact similar to solar back in the late 2000s.
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Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Much of this week’s notes are from Mauldin Economic’s Global Macro Update interview with Felix Zulauf. It’s a lot of content and I tried to summarize, but I recommend you watch the original video and check my math.
