Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly
Interesting employment trend as the remote work trend (WFH) creates economic benefits in the labor market as we see a 1% increase in the labor participation of mothers. A couple of reasons why I think this is significant. First it creates a way for parents and caregivers to efficiently work part time as they balance other responsibilities.
Second, and more critically, it allows full-time workers to provide part-time childcare for school-age children. By eliminating the commute, parents can drop kids off at school, attend events and generally support their children WITHOUT the need to take time off. This is a huge productivity boost and allows parents to stay fully in the workforce.
Meanwhile inflation remains sticky as the Shelter category continues to drive CPI. Despite interest rates, a shortage of available residential real estate still exists. All of this led me to think that the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is wishful thinking.
Speaking of interest rates, there are a lot of hullabaloo about the so called “wall of maturity”, but if you look at the maturities, you’ll notice more of a ramp from 2025 through 2028. Still a risk, but also not everything at once. I would expect a protracted period of pain. This along with ongoing CRE risks will hang a heavy cloud over debt markets for quite some time.
Wrapping up with Artificial Intelligence we are seeing two important trends. First a repatriation of high-end chips due to global supply concerns (Taiwan) and technological advances (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) which are expected to leapfrog domestic chip production by Intel. Second Nvidia chip supply issues are causing companies like OpenAI to spend an enormous amount ($7-9B) on GPUs per year. Long term this will influence companies (Apple, Tesla, Samsung) to design their own purpose-built chips.
Once-dominant Big Three are now facing fierce competition
A stark reminder of where the “big three” auto makers rank by market cap. If the future of automotive is electric, Tesla obviously has an early advantage. Toyota takes a slightly different track with hybrids. Maybe you’ve never heard of BYD, but the Chinese manufacturer has already seen success with exporting vehicles.Continue Reading…
The bubble repeated, for different underlying speculative reasons but effectively the same boom-bust cycle. What happens next to employment and the broad economy is likely a replay of the early 2000s.
@Prcwrites does a great job covering the technical aspects, I’d like to add some perspective from the employment.Continue Reading…
Below is a list of tools and sites I use for my daily media consumption. This list is not exhaustive and represents the top-tier level of information I consume.
Curated SubStack and equivalents. Most are free but I have upgraded to pay for several very valuable authors. Delivered daily, topics range from tech, economy to local (Charlotte, NC) news
Hey is a great email tool from 37Signals that makes sorting, categorizing, tracking email a breeze. All the newsletters go to “the feed” which is an auto-expiring list of emails that reads more like an endless scrolling timeline or blog. Love this product.
RSS / Newsfeed
I use RSS to track various news sources including tech, business, security, national defense and local sources. Most major publications maintain active RSS feed, though sometimes you need to search for them. Inoreader is my new favorite RSS aggregation tool.
I was a long time user of Feedly but more frequently found features behind the paywall. I also experienced several feeds not updating even though the origin site was posting content. Not sure what is going on there, but either way I need to see the latest content everywhere.Continue Reading…