Sticky inflation numbers have everyone second guessing if multiple rate cuts are in store. A lot of smart folks think we could see one, but nothing more prior to the election. After November all bet’s are off and may depend on who wins the presidency.

The new and used car bubble continues to deflate. Ford ends it’s certified EV dealer program which signals that the novelty of EVs has worn off. Long term EVs are just another propulsion type, like hybrids. GM, on the other hand, is executing stock buy backs to make Wall Street happy. They have outright stated that they plan to capitalize on ICE vehicles.

Rental prices are stalling and some think this is a sign that inflation may stick around. Likewise homes for rent are seeing a similar trend.

Finally the long term impact of GL-1 drugs on non-pharma industries remains to be seen. However BCBS of Michigan plans to discontinue coverage and this along with generic availability may help drive drug costs down.

TOPICS

• Inflation
• Automotive
• Residential Real Estate

I think we all learned an important lesson about stories from journalists who seek to sensationalize topics to generate clicks. The predicted Baltimore supply chain issues never materialized after shipping was shut down by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

Young workers have the lowest unemployment rate since the 60s and weekly wages are higher than in the past. Again, this contradicts the prevailing narrative that Gen Z is doing worse than previous generations. Look past the commentary at the data.

Wall Street wasn’t happy with META’s spending on AI. They’d rather the money be returned to the shareholders. We heard a very similar critique with Amazon as Bezos directed online retail profits into building what would become Amazon Web Services. The future of consumer AI will be through service providers, and companies like Meta and Microsoft will play a part.

The idea of natural gas as a bridge fuel is gaining mainstream support with the likes of Jim Cramer admitting as much. I’m still cautious that it will quickly bridge us to nuclear power which is the only reliable base load source that is carbon friendly.

Finally, the economy seems to be roaring ahead despite predictions of current or pending recession. GPD grew steadily but inflation also. Shelter costs and pending trade tariffs will only make inflation stickier. I see daily commentary on how indicators point toward future recession, but I’m mindful that while these indicators have a high correlation the timing is never consistent.

TOPICS

• Inflation
• Bankruptcy
• Energy
• Domestic Recession
• Labor Market
• Population
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• Globalization
• AI and ML

Every one that has eye can see that the Fed isn’t cutting interest rates. Apparently the stock market just realized? Bottom line inflation isn’t over and adding tarrifs to steel imports will only add fuel to the fire. Property and insurance is also piliing on inflation pressure

But it isn’t all gloom and doom. Long term energy production will ensure that the US economy remains top dog in the world. We produced a staggering 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023. There is also a broad consensus that natural gas is the right bridge energy to remove the last of the coal fired plants. All of this will remain a tailwind for the US, especially energy intensive industries.

The labor market is robust but wage growth has cooled. Long term worker pay needs to stabilize with long term inflation. Inflation is squeezing margins but businesses should expect increasing worker demand for raises. Demographics, increased union support and reshoring will all drive wages.

Elon Musk creates a lot of buzz, but if you look at two of his companies his actual impact is pretty visible. SpaceX has spurred an entire industry of providing cheaper commercial access to space. While success if obvious, the associated cost have not fully worked out. A recent impact of space debris on a home in Florida could become more common and the insurance industry is taking notice. Ultimately who is responsible when a Star Link microsatellite deorbits into someone’s property?

Likewise Tesla has long been the leader in electric cars it he US. Musk’s stated goal was to accelerate the EV technology, and he suceeded. With increasing competition from domestic and foreign manufacturers the company has doubled down on self-driving software side of the business. Again the insurance industry is taking notice. In my opinion, the biggest threat to Musk’s vision is not the technology or the consumers but the regulatory and risk mitigation aspects.

TOPICS

• Fed Rate
• Inflation
• Energy
• Labor Market
• Automotive
• EVs
• Commercial Space

The inflation figures weren’t great, but not shocking if you expect a long-term 3-4%.

US gasoline consumption is down but EVs aren’t the reason; Average fuel economy is up 42% since 2003. The US produces more oil than any country, ever. Crude oil production in the United States averaged a staggering 12.9 million barrels per day last year.

The Japanese economy appears on the mend after 25 years. Meanwhile strikes paralyze Germany as workers demand higher wages. While employment numbers for white collar workers are weak, blue collar and service workers are still in demand. I’d expect much more union activity everywhere.

3M is looking to follow GE’s lead and spin its health care business. And geopolitical risks are funneling money into the Indo-Pacific region.

TOPICS

• Inflation
• Energy
• Labor Market
• Life Extending Technology
• Globalization

Interesting employment trend as the remote work trend (WFH) creates economic benefits in the labor market as we see a 1% increase in the labor participation of mothers. A couple of reasons why I think this is significant. First it creates a way for parents and caregivers to efficiently work part time as they balance other responsibilities.  

Second, and more critically, it allows full-time workers to provide part-time childcare for school-age children. By eliminating the commute, parents can drop kids off at school, attend events and generally support their children WITHOUT the need to take time off. This is a huge productivity boost and allows parents to stay fully in the workforce. 

Meanwhile inflation remains sticky as the Shelter category continues to drive CPI. Despite interest rates, a shortage of available residential real estate still exists. All of this led me to think that the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is wishful thinking. 

Speaking of interest rates, there are a lot of hullabaloo about the so called “wall of maturity”, but if you look at the maturities, you’ll notice more of a ramp from 2025 through 2028. Still a risk, but also not everything at once. I would expect a protracted period of pain. This along with ongoing CRE risks will hang a heavy cloud over debt markets for quite some time. 

Wrapping up with Artificial Intelligence we are seeing two important trends. First a repatriation of high-end chips due to global supply concerns (Taiwan) and technological advances (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) which are expected to leapfrog domestic chip production by Intel. Second Nvidia chip supply issues are causing companies like OpenAI to spend an enormous amount ($7-9B) on GPUs per year. Long term this will influence companies (Apple, Tesla, Samsung) to design their own purpose-built chips.

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Inflation
• Consumer Credit
• Corporate Debt
• Commercial Real Estate
• Globalization
• AI

Populist political consequences and bipartisan, systemic big government spending are to blame. 77% of debt since 2000s attributed to legislation that passed with strong bipartisan support. 

Understatement of the year: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Empty office buildings are setting cities in a doom loop. Even CBS 60 minutes has picked up on the trend. 

Global shipping is under pressure.  reducing container transport by over 50%. Shipping rates will impact the supply chain for Europe, which is already weak or in recession. 

EVs don’t make a lot of economic sense right now and car buyers don’t want them. Only 6 Percent in the US want an EV for their Next Vehicle. Adoption rate is likely due to massive government subsidy programs.

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Inflation
• National Debt
• Real Estate
• Globalization
• Environment

Wages are still going up for some and inflation continues to cool effects are sticky. Companies continue to cut costs and shut down money losing projects 

Commercial real estate delinquencies are up but residential still looks OK. 

Moody’s cuts United States credit outlook and precious metal are being pitched as a remedy to a calamity that may never materialize. 

In the stock market retailers are seeing major drops in market value while shorts pile up on highflyers like TSLA and XOM. Meanwhile private equity that didn’t flee China is now stuck.  

Finally, OpenAI is asking Microsoft for more money, Sam Altman stating “Training expenses are just huge.” Simultaneous Disney’s content well is running dry with consumers as “The Marvels” lowest opening for a Disney film in the MCU.'

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Currency Risk
• Stock Market
• Globalization
• Digital Media
• AI and ML

A mixed bag of news this week. Inflation remains on the radar, as do future fed hikes. The labor market remains strong but finance continues to shed jobs.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Bankruptcy
• Fed Rate
• Finance
• Inflation
• Labor Market

Labor market continues to be tight, in places. Recent wage reports paint a picture of an oversupply of people with college degrees and undersupply of people without.

Inflation remains sticky with everything from drought driving water transport prices to gas prices at $4. It’s also obvious, to everyone except the conference board, that we are IN a recession.

The federal deficit balloons and the solar industry feels the slump of not being proped up by government spending.

Tech IPOs returned with Arm, Instacart and Klaviyo; while the cable industry reaches new lows as CNN has worst ratings weekend on record.

TOPICS

• Recession
• Fed Rate
• Inflation
• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Energy
• Stock Market
• Digital Media

First the bad news: Real Estate continues to trouble everyone, but a couple of things to point out. The number of delinquencies and foreclosures isn’t high which is good. Add to this more loans are locked in below 6%, far better than 2013. Over time this will shift as folks move.

Unfortunately inflation is sticking around. Concern about energy prices driving further inflation as it increases costs throughout the value chain. Likewise job losses are continuing to spill over into non-tech areas specifically finance ,both Citi and Truist.

But again on the brighter side worker shortages will buoy the labor market for years. 47% of Gen Zs were interested in pursuing a career in a trade. It might mean fewer office workers, but more plumbers, electricians, etc.

Finally a bit of good news as McDonald’s announced it was getting rid of self-serve soda machines citing less dining room traffic and more mobile orders. This is probably a godsend for service workers but also a rising trend in order ahead, customer prepayment merchant solutions. We saw this technology blossom during the pandemic and it’s confirmed to be a long term trend

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Labor Market
• Automation

Combine weeks due to slow news and stuff to do.

Mortgage rates are at a 20 year high and there is no way it won’t negatively immpact the housing market. Meanwhile rents are in decline, but why? Whatever the reason many are concerned about over built multi-family construction and construction loans that will need to be converted to high interest loans.

Inflation numbers look better but under the covers energy continues to be a huge upward pressure on CPI.

The labor market continues to struggle as some workers strike for more money and others are getting pink slips. The average job seeker is spending between 3-6 months looking for a new job.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Recession

Inflation eases, predictions of recession fade and bankruptcies accelerate.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Bankruptcy
• Stock Market

Rolling together two weeks of notes and noticing big trends in real estate, the impact of rising rates and the labor force.  Realtor.com reports a record low number of listed homes for sale, which will put upward pressure on prices but also benefits services, home improvement and rental property. 

Inflation numbers came in and continue to trend downward, but the consensus is that the Fed will continue to hike rates until it hurts (or YOY inflation goes negative as history indicates). Higher rates won’t make Wall Street happy for long but will have a real impact on both corporate and private debt. The former will impact the earnings bottom line, and the latter in the form of lower consumer spending. 

The question everyone is asking “Are we having a recession or not?”. It’s less of “if” than “when” as all eyes fix on the still inverted yield curve. The real question is hard landing or soft landing. A lot of conjecture and uncertainty. 

Finally, what does Gen Z want? More precisely, as they enter the workforce, what do they want from the work relationship? Gen X historically wanted to come in, work and go home. Millennials demanded more of their employers. But has Gen Z been in the workforce long enough to know what they truly want?

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Fed Rate
• Debt
• Recession
• Labor Market

Mixed recession opinions but I think we are starting to see more global signs as the American consumer remains strong, albeit pushing back against ever rising prices. On the flip side much concern about rising retail inventories and future price cuts that will impact on the bottom line.

On a more positive note, the potential for emerging battery technology extends well beyond electric vehicles. Renewable energy sources can leverage batteries to address the intermittency problem.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Recession
• Inflation
• Battery Technology

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Energy
• Inflation
• Stock Market

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Fed Rate
• Energy
• Inflation
• Future

Recession fears, the fed funds rate and resetting energy expectations

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Energy
• Inflation
• Recession
• Stock Market

Big gap since the last weekly notes posting, so I’ll attempt to summarize the big movers.

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Fed Rate
• Energy
• Inflation

THIS WEEK

• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Currency Trade

THIS WEEK

• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Energy
• Resources
• Famine

THIS WEEK

• Labor Market
• Market
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Energy
• Debt