Wages are still going up for some and inflation continues to cool effects are sticky. Companies continue to cut costs and shut down money losing projects 

Commercial real estate delinquencies are up but residential still looks OK. 

Moody’s cuts United States credit outlook and precious metal are being pitched as a remedy to a calamity that may never materialize. 

In the stock market retailers are seeing major drops in market value while shorts pile up on highflyers like TSLA and XOM. Meanwhile private equity that didn’t flee China is now stuck.  

Finally, OpenAI is asking Microsoft for more money, Sam Altman stating “Training expenses are just huge.” Simultaneous Disney’s content well is running dry with consumers as “The Marvels” lowest opening for a Disney film in the MCU.'

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Currency Risk
• Stock Market
• Globalization
• Digital Media
• AI and ML

A mixed bag of news this week. Inflation remains on the radar, as do future fed hikes. The labor market remains strong but finance continues to shed jobs.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Bankruptcy
• Fed Rate
• Finance
• Inflation
• Labor Market

Labor market continues to be tight, in places. Recent wage reports paint a picture of an oversupply of people with college degrees and undersupply of people without.

Inflation remains sticky with everything from drought driving water transport prices to gas prices at $4. It’s also obvious, to everyone except the conference board, that we are IN a recession.

The federal deficit balloons and the solar industry feels the slump of not being proped up by government spending.

Tech IPOs returned with Arm, Instacart and Klaviyo; while the cable industry reaches new lows as CNN has worst ratings weekend on record.

TOPICS

• Recession
• Fed Rate
• Inflation
• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Energy
• Stock Market
• Digital Media

First the bad news: Real Estate continues to trouble everyone, but a couple of things to point out. The number of delinquencies and foreclosures isn’t high which is good. Add to this more loans are locked in below 6%, far better than 2013. Over time this will shift as folks move.

Unfortunately inflation is sticking around. Concern about energy prices driving further inflation as it increases costs throughout the value chain. Likewise job losses are continuing to spill over into non-tech areas specifically finance ,both Citi and Truist.

But again on the brighter side worker shortages will buoy the labor market for years. 47% of Gen Zs were interested in pursuing a career in a trade. It might mean fewer office workers, but more plumbers, electricians, etc.

Finally a bit of good news as McDonald’s announced it was getting rid of self-serve soda machines citing less dining room traffic and more mobile orders. This is probably a godsend for service workers but also a rising trend in order ahead, customer prepayment merchant solutions. We saw this technology blossom during the pandemic and it’s confirmed to be a long term trend

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Labor Market
• Automation

Combine weeks due to slow news and stuff to do.

Mortgage rates are at a 20 year high and there is no way it won’t negatively immpact the housing market. Meanwhile rents are in decline, but why? Whatever the reason many are concerned about over built multi-family construction and construction loans that will need to be converted to high interest loans.

Inflation numbers look better but under the covers energy continues to be a huge upward pressure on CPI.

The labor market continues to struggle as some workers strike for more money and others are getting pink slips. The average job seeker is spending between 3-6 months looking for a new job.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Recession

Inflation eases, predictions of recession fade and bankruptcies accelerate.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Bankruptcy
• Stock Market

Rolling together two weeks of notes and noticing big trends in real estate, the impact of rising rates and the labor force.  Realtor.com reports a record low number of listed homes for sale, which will put upward pressure on prices but also benefits services, home improvement and rental property. 

Inflation numbers came in and continue to trend downward, but the consensus is that the Fed will continue to hike rates until it hurts (or YOY inflation goes negative as history indicates). Higher rates won’t make Wall Street happy for long but will have a real impact on both corporate and private debt. The former will impact the earnings bottom line, and the latter in the form of lower consumer spending. 

The question everyone is asking “Are we having a recession or not?”. It’s less of “if” than “when” as all eyes fix on the still inverted yield curve. The real question is hard landing or soft landing. A lot of conjecture and uncertainty. 

Finally, what does Gen Z want? More precisely, as they enter the workforce, what do they want from the work relationship? Gen X historically wanted to come in, work and go home. Millennials demanded more of their employers. But has Gen Z been in the workforce long enough to know what they truly want?

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Fed Rate
• Debt
• Recession
• Labor Market

Mixed recession opinions but I think we are starting to see more global signs as the American consumer remains strong, albeit pushing back against ever rising prices. On the flip side much concern about rising retail inventories and future price cuts that will impact on the bottom line.

On a more positive note, the potential for emerging battery technology extends well beyond electric vehicles. Renewable energy sources can leverage batteries to address the intermittency problem.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Recession
• Inflation
• Battery Technology

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Energy
• Inflation
• Stock Market

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Fed Rate
• Energy
• Inflation
• Future

Recession fears, the fed funds rate and resetting energy expectations

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Energy
• Inflation
• Recession
• Stock Market

Big gap since the last weekly notes posting, so I’ll attempt to summarize the big movers.

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Fed Rate
• Energy
• Inflation

THIS WEEK

• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Currency Trade

THIS WEEK

• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Energy
• Resources
• Famine

THIS WEEK

• Labor Market
• Market
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Energy
• Debt