More bad news for residential real estate; profitability in focus; national debt balloons; weird energy ideas in UK and sticky gas prices; platform consolidation; econ cycle nears end, what’s next;

The residential real estate market continues to suffer from perceived higher interest rates. Historically not above average, but relatively higher given the long low/no interest rates of recent memory. Housing supply continues to prop up prices which means home sales will certainly slow.

As fundraising and investment has become harder to find companies are now focused on improving profitability. AI companies are not alone, and the once hot tech sector is in the same boat raising prices and cutting costs. This will put pressure on SaaS contracts and employment and belt tightening continues.

The US debt continues to climb and will become prohibitive at some point due to higher interest rates. Meanwhile the UK mulls the idea of natural gas-powered heat pumps which is a weird idea given the Russian embargo and supply shortages. Oil supply tightening will continue to keep fuel prices high

Finally, streaming platforms continue to consolidate as Comcast looks for an exit on Hulu. It is worth noting that Comcast and Disney are still fighting over broadcasting contracts. And is the cycle nearly done? Whether you believe the economy was in recession the historical indicators say we’re nearing the end.

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Profitability
• Debt
• Energy
• M and A
• Stock Market

Rolling together two weeks of notes and noticing big trends in real estate, the impact of rising rates and the labor force.  Realtor.com reports a record low number of listed homes for sale, which will put upward pressure on prices but also benefits services, home improvement and rental property. 

Inflation numbers came in and continue to trend downward, but the consensus is that the Fed will continue to hike rates until it hurts (or YOY inflation goes negative as history indicates). Higher rates won’t make Wall Street happy for long but will have a real impact on both corporate and private debt. The former will impact the earnings bottom line, and the latter in the form of lower consumer spending. 

The question everyone is asking “Are we having a recession or not?”. It’s less of “if” than “when” as all eyes fix on the still inverted yield curve. The real question is hard landing or soft landing. A lot of conjecture and uncertainty. 

Finally, what does Gen Z want? More precisely, as they enter the workforce, what do they want from the work relationship? Gen X historically wanted to come in, work and go home. Millennials demanded more of their employers. But has Gen Z been in the workforce long enough to know what they truly want?

TOPICS

• Real Estate
• Inflation
• Fed Rate
• Debt
• Recession
• Labor Market

TOPICS

• Special Edition
• Financial
• Energy
• Inflation

TOPICS

• Debt
• Labor Market
• Energy
• Stock Market

TOPICS

• Energy
• Debt
• Resources
• Environment

THIS WEEK

• Labor Market
• Market
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Energy
• Debt