Growth is slowing around the globe and central banks in Canada, Australia and the Eurozone are signaling rate increases. At some point that will bleed over into the US.

Union pressure ramps up at Amazon as ALU partners with the Teamsters. Hands on labor is still in demand even though office work has been in recession for over a year.

EVs continue to drag down automotive sales and a used car price correction is underway.

The real estate market is still hot, but inventories are starting to recover to pre-pandemic levels. This will create downward pressure on prices but don’t expect a major correction. The real relief will come from more starter homes being built.

A different kind of M&A with Dollar Tree looking to divest some Family Dollar stores. In truth there is likely a lot of footprints overlap between the two and consolidation by shutting down underperforming stores is in order.

Finally, folks are starting to question the massive spend on AI related tech. Chamath Palihapitiya has been very vocal about the value proposition of AI chatbots. He further speculates that eventually shareholders will demand a return on their investment from massive spend.

TOPICS

• Fed Rate
• Global Recession
• Domestic Recession
• Labor Market
• Energy
• Automotive
• Residential Real Estate
• Life Extending Technology
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• AI and ML

The Chevron deal is a move for Guyana in forging its own direction.

Anything short of a lower residential real estate price will help new buyers

Mergers and acquisitions ramp up with both T-Mobile and ConocoPhillips.

Drug prices are starting to pump the brakes on GL2, even as companies like Eli Lilly expand production.

Meanwhile Elon Musk continues to inspire the confidence of investors, even if his business aresosing their luster.

TOPICS

• Energy
• Residential Real Estate
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• Life Extending Technology
• AI and ML

The inflation figures weren’t great, but not shocking if you expect a long-term 3-4%.

US gasoline consumption is down but EVs aren’t the reason; Average fuel economy is up 42% since 2003. The US produces more oil than any country, ever. Crude oil production in the United States averaged a staggering 12.9 million barrels per day last year.

The Japanese economy appears on the mend after 25 years. Meanwhile strikes paralyze Germany as workers demand higher wages. While employment numbers for white collar workers are weak, blue collar and service workers are still in demand. I’d expect much more union activity everywhere.

3M is looking to follow GE’s lead and spin its health care business. And geopolitical risks are funneling money into the Indo-Pacific region.

TOPICS

• Inflation
• Energy
• Labor Market
• Life Extending Technology
• Globalization

Where is the stock market going? If the yield curve and consumer spending is an indicator we could be headed for a recession. On the other hand, Black Friday card data says that spending may not be as weak as expected and the VIX indicates a new kind of bullishness not seen in a while. On thing is clear, sectors that performed well outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant amount. 

Rent or buy? No not talking about a home, but rather machine learning cycles. Companies like Snowflake continue to grow amid high demand for Nvidia chips. Sometimes it makes sense to rent a server rather than rack your own hardware. 

A couple of bright spots. First battery prices are expected to fall and newer technology will improve performance. Likewise, life extending technology like CRISPR gene editing is opening new possibilities in treatment. Finally, even though modular nuclear technology is a non-starter at the moment, the broader application of “hot rocks making steam” is still a benefit to reducing carbon output.

TOPICS

• Consumer Credit
• Fed Rate
• Recession
• Battery Technology
• Cybersecurity
• Stock Market
• Life Extending Technology
• AI and ML
• Nuclear Power