Global pressure once again calls into question the possibility of a Fed rate cut. Either way the world is seeing the demographic decline play out in Japan and need to take heed of their own issues.

Canceling student debt might have mixed popularity, but it’s hard to ignore the economic impact of freeing prime age consumers from the shackles of debt payments. Will it have an impact, hard to say? Again, either way the real reform needs to focus on the cost of college.

Companies are still trying to figure out how to goose results to please Wall Street. Disney, once again under Bob Iger, is reducing head count and refocusing on major box office releases rather than streaming platform releases. Seems like a solid strategy, short term, but long-term Disney faces a lot of challenges.

Meanwhile DuPont is following in the footsteps of GE and others by planning to break up its business units into multiple stand-alone businesses. While it’s easy to imagine that DuPont wants to divest from slower growing business, the reality is likely that each business will focus on the metrics that Wall Street cares about to maximize stock prices.

TOPICS

• Fed Rate
• Global Recession
• Consumer Debt
• Labor Market
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• EVs

Long term thinking is the only low stress way to invest in the market, and not worry about what the Fed will do. Don’t worry about meme stonks.

Digital media remains in a state of consolidation. Comcast will partner with Peacock, Netflix, and Apple TV to offer bundles. Meanwhile Disney and Warner Bros announced a joint streaming service combining Disney+, Hulu, and Max. Either way the consolidation is starting to make streaming look more like linear TV.

Red Lobster is rumored to be going bankrupt and Under Armour is on the ropes. Corporate debt is less of a concern as businesses adjust to higher interest rates. Consumers, on the other hand, are taking out more debt. But looking beneath the numbers and debt has less to do with consumer spending. Income and wages are far more important.

The labor market continues to struggle and we’re seeing layoffs outside of tech. We are also seeing an increase in unionization efforts which will make the southern US more expensive for manufacturing. Demand is high and with or without unions wages are likely to go up, and that will drive inflation.

TOPICS

• Fed Rate
• Bankruptcy
• Digital Media
• Stock Market Bubble
• Corporations Debt
• Consumer Debt
• Labor Market

This week we saw continued concern about the resiliency of consumer spend and the impact of growing debt on households. Credit card debt hit a record $1.08T and the largest increase since the NY Fed began tracking in 1999. Likewise household ability to cover a $400 emergency expense continues to decline.

Labor and recession talk still circulates but opinions are mixed on the implications. On the one hand “quits” are down to pre-COVID levels but we’re seeing a weird trend line in jobs due to shifting demographics. October numbers would have been 262,000 if the birth/death wasn’t negative. Likewise, where some see strength in the economy others are reporting slowdowns that will cause a future recession.

I guess it depends on whether you think we are in a recession, just came out of a recession, or are headed for the next recession. We are seeing layoffs and manufacturing is on the cusp of contraction. It may not be clear the casual observer as companies like Citigroup are disguising layoffs as special projects and others like BoFA have instituted hiring freezes to control labor costs.

Not all gloom and doom as several companies have announced that they will build their own proprietary large language models. Amazon announced Olympus and Titan despite also partnering with Anthropic. It’s clear that major companies are placing LOTS of bets with AI to leapfrog competition.

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• Consumer Debt
• Recession
• Profitability
• AI and ML

Everyone on Wall Street and in finance is worried about the fed rate and when cuts will begin. This largely ignores the real impact that high interest rates (i.e., borrowing cost) have on everyday people.  

On one hand the cost for consumers to borrow and maintain their lifestyle amid rising prices is in serious jeopardy. The credit crunch is ongoing and should be a concern to everyone. It has largely propped up buying, as have government transfer payments. Those payments are coming to an end and student loans are coming due. 

The flip side of higher interest rates is the inevitable downward pressure on home prices. It’s a matter of affordability for buyers and we are finally starting to see it. Commercial real estate is in a far worse situation, and I think the prediction of a bottom in mid 2024 is optimistic. It less about a bottom in commercial real estate and more about a long term underperformance.  

Not surprisingly, the deterioration in household finances is fueling a rise in credit delinquency, particularly in automotive. As if that weren’t enough the big three US auto manufacturers are experiencing worker strikes and more alarming a decline in market cap. Most shocking both Ford and GM have less global market cap than Ferrari which produces a fraction of the number of vehicles. 

But notice something else, tucked in between Tesla and BYD is Toyota. Not only does Toyota have the reputation for building reliable internal combustion cars that are a great value, but Toyota has also sold vehicles in the hybrid space for years. The Prius is the bestselling hybrid car of all time first for sale outside of Japan 23 years ago. We should take notice when Toyota recently announced a long-term battery partnership with LG Energy Solution. 

The last point for the week is a great example of how correlation does not imply causation. The spreadsheet did not in fact destroy the bookkeepers job, and it is not an analog of the AI revolution. I know that a lot of finance is done via spreadsheets, but no sizeable business is using Excel to track accounting auditing. There are purpose built systems for that and they are expensive for companies and lucrative for SaaS providers.

TOPICS

• Consumer Debt
• Real Estate
• Automotive
• Fed Rate
• EV Battery
• AI

This week illustrated the disconnect between big business CEOs and everyone else. Whether it’s Moynihan’s recession denial or Dimon trotting out a classic Warren Buffet trope it’s clear than small and medium size business are seeing a completely different reality.

In the opposing corner we have big box retail on the decline and hard times hitting bottom lines indicating we’re already in recession. Meanwhile everyone is dealing with the painful unwinding of artificially low interest rates. The fed finally paused, but what does it mean?

A major force in small business is the push toward profitability. Most everyone knows money is about to get tight and small companies need to get lean. Meanwhile everyone is paying the price of the unprecedented decline in demand during COVID. Organizations like OPEC are still whip-saw trying to deal with fluctuating demand plus the lingering impact of Russian oil embargo.

Despite the gloom, at a high level the consumer debt to net worth ratio paints a different picture. Americans are still far better off as net worth climbs faster than debt and that’s good for everyone. On the flip side of high lending rates, the lack of new home construction will continue to prop up residential real estate prices. Supply and demand still alive and well.

TOPICS

• Recession
• Fed Rate
• Consumer Debt
• Real Estate
• Bankruptcy
• Profitability
• Energy