Wages are still going up for some and inflation continues to cool effects are sticky. Companies continue to cut costs and shut down money losing projects 

Commercial real estate delinquencies are up but residential still looks OK. 

Moody’s cuts United States credit outlook and precious metal are being pitched as a remedy to a calamity that may never materialize. 

In the stock market retailers are seeing major drops in market value while shorts pile up on highflyers like TSLA and XOM. Meanwhile private equity that didn’t flee China is now stuck.  

Finally, OpenAI is asking Microsoft for more money, Sam Altman stating “Training expenses are just huge.” Simultaneous Disney’s content well is running dry with consumers as “The Marvels” lowest opening for a Disney film in the MCU.'

TOPICS

• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Inflation
• Real Estate
• Currency Risk
• Stock Market
• Globalization
• Digital Media
• AI and ML

Asia is in real trouble.  The YTD basis has the highest zombie prominence of any market which indicates a lot of potential business failures in the future. Meanwhile 67 % of all Chinese bonds are in default which could trigger another Asian debt crisis if the government does not intervene. 

Everything is political, including designating a recession.  Personally, I think we already had a mild recession and numbers will be retroactively revised. The numbers look different this time because of the unprecedented distortion caused by COVID era fiscal policies. 

While the US corporate sector may not be in as bad a shape as Asia, our national budget situation is dire and on the verge of being out of control. This year the budget deficit was approximately the size of total income tax collected which is probably unsustainable. If the fight over house speaker is any indication, this is a very serious situation. 

We wrap with an interesting chart about streaming in the US which seems to have hit a plateau. Companies are looking abroad for growth but it’s more likely that the rate of cord-cutting, and multiple streaming platforms will cool. At this phase I would expect more growth through consolidation of services.

TOPICS

• Bankruptcy
• National Debt
• Recession
• Digital Media

Labor market continues to be tight, in places. Recent wage reports paint a picture of an oversupply of people with college degrees and undersupply of people without.

Inflation remains sticky with everything from drought driving water transport prices to gas prices at $4. It’s also obvious, to everyone except the conference board, that we are IN a recession.

The federal deficit balloons and the solar industry feels the slump of not being proped up by government spending.

Tech IPOs returned with Arm, Instacart and Klaviyo; while the cable industry reaches new lows as CNN has worst ratings weekend on record.

TOPICS

• Recession
• Fed Rate
• Inflation
• Labor Market
• National Debt
• Energy
• Stock Market
• Digital Media