Category: Business

2022 Week 34

Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly



Inflation feels good at first but the endgame is grim - Jens O. Parsson

(El-Erian) :: This Bloomberg chart illustrates what has been a significant evolution in the Federal Reserve’s inflation forecasts.

(Sonders) :: Even if we had zero additional inflation for the rest of the year, CPI would not reach Fed’s 2% target (applying pre- or post-COVID averages brings it down much less) @biancoresearch @BLS_gov @ClevelandFed

OPINION: Inflation will ease up as demand declines (recession) and the money supply tightens (fed), but it won’t go away. Too many inflationary pressures at the moment


Buy When There’s Blood in the Streets - Nathan Rothschild (maybe?)

(Sonders) :: Despite slight uptick in consumer sentiment recently (as measured by @UMich), confidence in being able to buy vehicles, houses, and large household durables is firmly recessionary and hovering near lowest since 1980s

OPINION: Mild recession in the works, to be followed by slow growth. Possibly a deeper recession down the road as globalization unwinds

Real Estate

Equity feels good but at the end of the day I can’t eat my house

(Calacanis) :: Many high paid WFH jobs are at risk because once a manager learns remote-work techniques they eventually see a $15 an hour person in Manila do the work of a $40 an hour American–on the same Slack instance! Then they go “wow!” & ship work to gig platforms. Not all work obviously.

OBSERVATION: The language around return to office has changed. Employers to begrudgingly let folks work from home will claw back privileges until everyone is back in the office 5 days a week

OPINION: WFH, distributed workforces, smaller offices will impact corporate real estate. I think we’ve hit a high water mark as companies downsize, scale back the idea of one big centralized office


We live in unprecedented times

(John Ellis) :: A “next generation” coronavirus booster jab which may only need administering once a year has been approved for use in adults. Moderna’s chief medical officer, Dr Paul Burton, previously said that the new jab can boost a person’s antibodies to such high levels that it may only be needed annually. (Source:

OPINION: Good news, but needs to be bundled with annual influenza vaccine to become widely adopted. Vaccine hesitant will still opt out


We live in the future - This Week in Startups / Jason Calacanis

(Dispatch) :: A remarkable scientific breakthrough could restore sight to the blind—and in an affordable way. “Unlike human corneas, which must be transplanted within two weeks, the bioengineered implants can be stored for up to two years, which could help with shipping them to those who need them the most,” Rhiannon Williams writes in the MIT Technology Review. “Surgeons in Iran and India conducted a pilot trial of 20 people who were either blind or close to losing their sight from advanced keratoconus. This disease thins the cornea, the outermost transparent layer of the eye, and prevents the eye from focusing properly. The implant restored the cornea’s thickness and curvature. All 14 of the participants who had been blind before the operation had their vision restored, with three of them achieving perfect 20/20 vision. While human cornea transplants in patients with keratoconus are traditionally sewn in using sutures, the team experimented with a new surgical method that’s simpler and potentially safer.”

OPINION: Again, good news. Reason to be bullish on the biotech industry