Tags: 2022
Category: Business

2022 Week 28

Notes, thoughts and observations - Compiled weekly



Inflation feels good at first but the endgame is grim - Jens O. Parsson

OPINION :: This graph makes sense. Millennials spending habits shifted from experiences, which were hard to come by, to things which were an Amazon or DoorDash click away

Signs of capitulation: stocks trading underwater

QUESTION :: Is this shift permanent, or will demand trend back toward the mean?

Two options:

  1. The trend sticks and people stock up on goods and home furnishings. Hard to do when you can’t buy and sell for bigger houses.
  2. Demand trends back toward the mean, goods sales declines and discretionary experiences like casino and resorts come roaring back.


Gimme fuel, gimme fire Gimme that which I desire - Metallica

OPINION :: Gas prices are falling, almost as if consumers are buying less fuel

SPECULATION :: Belt tightening, not demand reduction. EVs will be a macro trend, but we are more than 100 years away from electric as a primary power source for most vehicles

  • Why invest more to expand or maintain existing capacity, given the long-term structural decline of gasoline and diesel demand? - Joe Weisenthal
Signs of capitulation: stocks trading underwater

Credit Crunch

A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it. - Bob Hope

OPINION :: Banks passed their stress tests, the American worker may not

OBSERVATION :: Personal savings is falling again, meaning consumers are strapped for cash admid rising prices and uncertain employement/hours

  • Liz Ann Sonders :: Massive divergence in bank deposits by income percentile, with wealthy’s deposits having surged, while those in bottom 20% having reversed course from a slight upward trajectory
Signs of capitulation: stocks trading underwater

Sovereign Debt

THOUGHT :: Need to watch the Chinese and Russian debt market, could be an early indicator

THOUGHTS :: China attempting to slow roll their credit situation to prevent a crash

THOUGHTS :: Everyone saw this coming. More to do with banking boycott rather than lack of cash

  • Seeking Alpha :: Russia defaults on foreign debt for the first time since 1918